What do you think the risks are to London’s economy in the coming years?
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Thanks for sharing your views everyone. Many of you have mentioned Brexit and the rising cost of living.
What do you think the Mayor can do to ensure London is ready for these challenges?
Stop trying to get more people into London would be a really good start.
8.6 Million people in 607 square miles is causing the city to choke due to all the bottlenecks created during Medieval and Victorian times. Ottawa by comparison has 1.3 Million people living in 2,206 square miles that is not constricted by historical choices.
Cramming more people in pushes the cost of living up.
The other risks to London's economy is the stupid decision of the Mayor to stop the re-development of Colindale, esp Grahame Park. Lots this not only provides lots of employment as well as the re-development of lots of housing that is some of the worst I have ever seen in the world, even Ukraine had much better housing, it is a total dive and needs demolition ASAP. The poor residents there some even Refugees deserve good housing and stability straight away. The risks of it being delayed are that the new businesses in Colindale could suffer as with regeneration higher spends and more people in a better ergonomic environment are attracted. Also foreign capital from China esp in Colindale is coming in really lifting the area and diversity. Holding off plans like this risks London's economy.
Are you sure about this?
Please give a website link to news about this.
Work on new housing is going ahead in the Colindale area as far as I can see...
A very specific threat. There is a vast development project to be done with University College London and London College of Fashion in East London. These are both unpopular colleges that make lots of money for that reason: they get less choosy students from outside the EU who pay double fees. So if overseas students noticed how bad these colleges are and stopped coming, or set-up a campaign to pay more reasonable fees, or the new Office for Students noticed how over-charged they are and helped them, the project might not be viable.
One of the biggest problems we have especially in London is wiping out our Industrial areas and replacing them with flats, I understand the need for house building however there is also a need for Industry to employ people
But think of all those flats to sell to overseas buyers.
We're building the wrong type of housing in the wrong location because it's being dome by the private sector.
Brexit has to be mentioned. Although people are getting a little overloaded with the topic, this is, without doubt, one of the largest economic transition periods for the UK and certainly, it's capital city for decades.
From tax plans and volatility of the GBP, through to ongoing negotiations and more - London is likely to see the largest impact and the most volatility outside of niche industry dominated towns and services.
You only need to keep on top of economic update sites (example WorldFirst) to see this daily impact, let alone the longer term connotations of Brexit to London and the UK.
I think there are a lot of potential risks to London's economy, none greater though than the rising costs of living in the city. I'm originally from Sweden where renting is common and buying property is not often high on people's agenda because renting is a secure form of tenure. There is no time-limit to your contract, you can stay for as long as you want, if you want to leave you give the landlord 3 months notice, and if the landlord needs to terminate the contract he/she gives you 3 months notice. However, the contract can only be terminated for a few different reasons such as vandalism or structural works to the building. Hence, you find people having lived in the same property for decades, treating it as it is was their own. More fundamentally though, it is much more affordable than London.
While there are a lot of opportunities in London you are increasingly starting to see other cities such as Bristol taking up the baton and running with it. And why wouldn't young people choose to live there instead? Better air quality, lower rents, active cultural and nightlife scene.
Finally, I think the biggest risk to London is the national government. The ideology of fend for yourself and let the market rule is going to hinder many attempts to solve the affordability, housing and work space crisis. As long as Council's can't borrow to build their own social housing we will keep seeing cross-subsidisation schemes that, while it achieves some social housing, it pushes up prices for private sale. Because the bigger the price tag they can put on private sale the more social housing they can achieve. It's an oxymoron - create affordable housing by pushing up prices.
To finish off on a good note, I have faith in the public opinion strengthening and thereby forcing the government to do more. I believe in the creativity of the public organisations in London to continue to come up with ideas of how to fix these problems, and to push the national government to do more.
As the command of money by the more wealthier parts of our society grows (which it is doing), more land is being held unused. This makes the cost of both produce and accommodation become greater. The obvious danger is that poorer families are being forced to live further away from a source of employment and so the gap between rich and poor tends to widen. This is not a risk it is a fact and the answer is to creat the forces to stop this command of money from being used on land purchases.
We need to tax land values and in so doing to reduce the tendency to create more poverty.
Brexit poses a huge risk to London's economy in my view. It was only a matter of time before a new pro-EU party was formed and it seems one just has. It seems the pro-EU Renew Party has just formed - see:
Good luck to them - if Corbyn cannot be persuaded to go the full monty and vote Remain, then I and many of my Labour voting friends will back Renew, despite recently voting Labour to oust a pro-Tory Brexit MP . I am 71 and very much in favour of the UK remaining within the EU for a variety of reasons.
Here's one thing that is a significant risk https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/26/ghost-towers-half-of-ne...
Maybe build housing Londeners need rather than what Property Vultures want to build.
Ever increasing property prices, ULEZ hitting the poorest, crime being out of control. The Mayor not actually listening to what people say, but instead using selective data to back up his agenda.
I'm trying to get out of London, but waiting until Brexit is vaguely settled is holding me back. Don't want to relocate somewhere and then find that the company I'm working for shuts down due to it.
I agree that property prices are ridiculous while the Mayer tries to lure more people IN to London.
One risk is that companies and their employees underestimate the importance of foreign language skills in post-Brexit Britain. Of course English will remain the most widely spoken language in Europe, but in order to do business in European markets speaking the language of the country will be a crucial factor in the coming years.
As the owner of a German language school (https://www.olesentuition.co.uk) I'm biased, of course, but from conversations with many successful companies in the UK and Europe it's become quite apparent that language skills simplify, sometimes even enable, business negotiations between companies. So London's companies will have to adapt to this trend and invest more time and energy in language courses.
Of course Brexit will be damaging to the London Economy, but even if we had another referendum the same people who voted to leave will vote leave again that is the mentality of people, despite,the current unsettling problems London is enduring and the grey future prospects that seem to lay ahead for voting to leave the EU. Well, how are we suppose to believe that things will be better and brighter after Brexit with the UK having no true friends in the world thereafter and when London is not in a good place now?
Yet, those responsible for London are also to blame for being on a dark uncompassionate path that will also subsequently destroy the London Economy. To name just a few... Increasing Travel Fares regularly every year ...., Low Wages for the many..., No Rental Cap ( their rental fees are cruel and only benefits the Landlords) ..The increase of Crime on our Streets is starting to have an affect on Tourism particularly those with very young children as crime is making them far too afraid to visit our City and yet the government is far more concern with saving money instead of making London safer and of course by providing the right skilled Teaches in schools to focus on making children from a very young age decent human beings , knife crime is out of control!!...Lack of good and safety pedestrian crossings and pedestrian paths are keeping many shoppers away from the High Road shops....Government ministers and the London Mayor are travelling abroad far too much instead of using technology.
People love to boast that the UK is one of the most riches countries in the world but it means nothing if the country does not show its wealth by enriching our city for it prosperity which includes it citizens enrichment. There is far too much a focus on financially squeezing the ordinary average citizen which is the majority of their citizens and not enough spending in London which spells for a bleak London Forecast.
Thanks everyone for sharing your views so far.
A key problem in London is the rising crime rates. I would be reluctant to set up a business in many parts of London nowadays.
Crime has shot up in the 18 months since Sadiq Khan has been in office. Under both Ken Livingstone and Boris Johnson crime levels fell sharply.
I feel very nervous walking down the street in many parts of London - especially Camden and Islington using a phone now
Many neighbouring areas such as Kent and Hertfordshire aren't suffering from the magnitude of rising levels of crime London is suffering from.
I wish Sadiq Khan would stop using this as a political weapon and wasting taxpayers money on gimmicks such as London Borough of Culture and invest in our police properly.
Brexit Brexit and Brexit
I think this comment covers three top risks!
All the comments made so far put all of my arguments into the public arena. Brexit risks a loss of poorly paid workers that support a massive service sector, the loss of the EU agencies, I am somewhat ambivalent about the market traders in the City banking, considering the mess they got us into and for which none of them has really paid personally.
We must remember that London is not comprised of only people and enormous salaries but even more at the bottom who are struggling to survive let alone actually live here.
Declining public services will make London a poorer place to live so it will be harder to attract workers
Failing to sort out air quality will be a risk in my opinion, as people simply wont want to work in London or send their kids to schools in London.
For me there is so many problems so many did not pay any tax, but so high benefits my head spinning around ... Next so many did not have any education, but have quite high post that next problem ... Stand stills on roads, when Mayor of London did not worked usually in Sundays, sad ... There is more and more ...
Rising sea level and other effects of climate change
Risks, how many do out want? The ability to live work and travel about the capital without the added burden of sneak taxes such as congestion/toxic charges. These do nothing to help reduce either conditions and just raise finance for the over controlling GLA. I suppose we must pay or the Mayor to travel to India etc which will not benefit London in any way. The heavy load of rent, rates and business taxes will kill of Londons economy anyway. All the time we have additional layers of government to finance, with politicians laying the blame at the door of leaving the EU gravy train, London will gradually sink into decline. On a note of cheer, it is only the resilience of the general public and real workers that will keep us going.
The bad public transport and the cost of transport, also the so called low emissions zones
that are only a tax and will do little to clean the air.
With the 3rd Runway at Heathrow low emissions zones can only be seen as a tax.
The high rents in all sectors make it near impossible for any one on a normal to
low income to live in the area so transport is essential yet its un reliable and
most women would feel un happy at travelling alone at night.
With out the workers the rest of business will fall.
With high rent workers are forced to move.
Un reliable transport = the sack
You need to sort rents and transport
to build the economy and to keep quality staff unless these
2 are fully addressed you cant and wont retain staff.
One factor must be the high cost of property - renting or ownership from scratch is virtually impossible without help from the Bank of Mum and/or Dad. Another factor is Brexit - already, some EU agencies are moving away from the UK and that means less expenditure from people working there. Brexit will also adversely affect the financial sector - much depends on the final negotiations of course, but some financial jobs are going to be lost to London because of Brexit - we should cancel Brexit!
Another factor is the low pay of many London jobs in the retail, catering and hotel industries. I really cannot understand how people can exist on the low salaries that so many have to endure.
Brexit is good part of the reason for high housing is with free movement lots from eastern Europe esp have moved here to make on exchange rate. excessive immigration has fuelled a housing boom. as immigrants can live 8 in a former 3bed and send money home where they make on exchange rate. to protect the ££££ interest rates have to go up, if they are raised quickly and crash housing back into net take home pay level at moment, with euro in demise there risks being a flight of foreign capital here, aswell as every last eastern European and his dog. The whole economic system of globalisation is to blame. yes we need a public sector. yes some need more pay esp at lower levels. to pay for that in an age oof consumerism then the border should go up and goods and services should be taxed to pay for it. one franch politician le-pen sees this.
Some people still working with with £7,6 /h
Just the rent for a room it’s minimum £350/person pm